OECD Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts: Slowdown in Investment and Consumption

The latest OECD report lowers its global economic growth forecasts, pointing to rising trade barriers and growing political uncertainty. The organisation expects global GDP growth to slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. This is a weaker outlook than in the December forecasts, which assumed stable growth of 3.3%.

US economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs

The US economy, which has grown strongly in recent years, is expected to slow to growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The main cause is rising trade barriers, including the tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico planned by Donald Trump's administration. The OECD stresses that protectionist policy may further weaken international trade.

➡️ Canada: the GDP growth forecast has been lowered to 0.7% in 2024 (previously 2%).

➡️ Mexico: the economy is expected to contract by 1.3% instead of the earlier estimate of +1.2%.

Economists point out that if the tariff increases were less aggressive, global growth could be higher and inflation lower.

Inflation higher than expected

The OECD expects that inflation will remain above central bank targets until 2026. Despite earlier optimistic forecasts, rising prices will continue to be a problem:

📌 USA: inflation in 2025 will be 2.8% (previously forecast at 2.1%).

📌 G20: inflation will rise from the earlier estimate of 3.5% to 3.8%.

OECD experts stress that protectionism, tariffs and political uncertainty increase trade costs and push prices up, which limits consumers' purchasing power and slows economic development.

How can we help?

We offer support to businesses that want to protect themselves against the effects of the global economic slowdown.

✅ Investment risk analysis - identifying threats related to trade policy.

✅ Tax advice for exporters and importers - optimisation of customs duties and taxation.

✅ Support with expansion into foreign markets - help with adapting your business to new trading conditions.

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