Escalation of the Middle East conflict - the scale of global business losses
The armed conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, ongoing since February 2026, is having an increasingly strong impact on the global economy. According to analyses by Reuters, losses of businesses worldwide have already reached at least USD 25 billion. This is comparable to the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, which clearly illustrates the scale of the problem.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most important trade routes in the world - has pushed the price of crude oil above USD 100 per barrel, more than 50% higher than before the war. The closure of this strategic passage has drastically increased transport costs, restricted supplies of key raw materials such as fertilisers, helium, aluminium and polyethylene, and cut off the trade routes essential to the global flow of goods.
At least 279 companies listed on stock exchanges worldwide have officially cited the war as the reason for emergency measures - from price increases and production cuts to suspended dividends and sending employees on unpaid leave. For Polish companies trading with foreign partners or dependent on imported raw materials, this situation creates specific legal and contractual consequences that require professional analysis.
Force majeure and hardship clauses - how the law protects businesses
In the context of the current armed conflict, legal mechanisms that allow contracts to be renegotiated or terminated in extraordinary circumstances are becoming critically important. The most important of these is force majeure - an external event that cannot be foreseen or prevented and that makes it impossible to perform an obligation. An armed conflict and the blockade of sea routes are classic examples of such events.
Polish civil law, although it does not expressly define force majeure in the Civil Code, treats it as a circumstance excluding the debtor's liability under Article 471 of the Civil Code and the provisions on strict liability. However, the mere existence of an armed conflict is not enough - a business must demonstrate a direct causal link between the event and the impossibility of performing the contract.
Alongside force majeure, the rebus sic stantibus clause regulated in Article 357¹ of the Civil Code is also of significant importance. It allows a court to change the content of an obligation or even terminate it where, owing to an extraordinary change of circumstances, performance would involve excessive difficulties or expose one of the parties to a gross loss. The sharp rise in energy raw material prices and the disruption of supply chains may provide grounds for relying on this provision.
What to look out for in commercial contracts
Businesses should promptly carry out a review of their existing commercial contracts with regard to force majeure provisions and adaptation clauses. They should check whether the contracts contain a closed or open list of events qualifying as force majeure, what procedures apply for notifying the counterparty that force majeure has occurred, and what deadlines apply for reporting such circumstances. Failure to meet formal requirements may deprive a business of legal protection, even if the substantive conditions have been met.
Practical consequences for Polish businesses
Although Poland is not a direct party to the conflict, Polish companies are feeling the economic effects of the war on many fronts. Rising energy prices translate into higher production costs, transport and logistics costs, and disruption in global supply chains may lead to delays in fulfilling orders and material shortages. Here are the main areas of legal risk for Polish businesses:
- Non-performance or improper performance of contracts - delays in the supply of raw materials may result in contractual penalties being charged by counterparties; it is necessary to analyse whether force majeure or an extraordinary change of circumstances can be relied upon.
- Increased contractual costs - rising prices of energy and petrochemical raw materials may make long-term contracts grossly unprofitable; it is worth considering renegotiating terms or applying an indexation clause.
- Insurance problems - insurance policies may contain exclusions for acts of war; the scope of insurance cover for cargo transported by sea routes should be verified.
- Sanctions and compliance - the conflict may bring new sanctions regimes; Polish companies must continuously monitor EU and US regulations on trade restrictions.
- Employment law - a drop in orders may force a restructuring of employment; compliance with the procedures under the Labour Code and the Act on collective redundancies is crucial.
As the examples of global corporations such as Toyota (projected losses of USD 4.3 billion), Procter & Gamble (profits down by USD 1 billion) and McDonald’s (higher cost inflation) show, no industry is immune to the effects of the conflict. Polish companies, especially those participating in international value chains, should take proactive legal action now.
How to protect your company - legal recommendations
In the face of a prolonged conflict and uncertainty over a lasting ceasefire - peace talks between the US and Iran have reached a deadlock - Polish businesses should implement a comprehensive legal risk management strategy. The key steps include, above all, an audit of commercial contracts for force majeure and hardship clauses and indexation mechanisms.
Equally important is documenting the impact of the conflict on your business - gathering evidence of increased costs, delivery delays and other operational disruption. Such documentation will be essential in the event of court or arbitration disputes with counterparties. Companies should also consider diversifying their sources of supply and securing alternative logistics routes, which requires the appropriate structuring of new contractual relationships.
The regulatory and compliance dimension must not be forgotten. The conflict in the Middle East is creating a rapidly changing sanctions environment - both at EU and US level. A breach of sanctions regimes, even an unintentional one, may lead to severe financial penalties and criminal liability for those managing the company. Professional regulatory monitoring and the implementation of internal compliance procedures are now an absolute necessity.
Contact our firm - we will protect your business
The current geopolitical situation requires businesses to make quick and well-considered legal decisions. Broken supply chains, rising energy prices and regulatory uncertainty are challenges that are best not faced alone. Every day of delay may mean losing the ability to rely on protective clauses in contracts or exposing the company to additional losses.
Our firm offers comprehensive legal support for businesses affected by the Middle East conflict - from an audit of commercial contracts and advice on force majeure, through the renegotiation of contracts with foreign partners, to representation in disputes and support with sanctions compliance. Contact us today to arrange a consultation and effectively safeguard your company's interests in these difficult times.
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