IMF 2026 report - the global economy on the brink of recession
The International Monetary Fund has published its latest World Economic Outlook report, which leaves no illusions about the condition of the world economy. According to IMF analysts, the armed conflict with Iran could push the global economy to the brink of recession, with oil prices and mounting geopolitical tensions remaining the key risk factors.
The baseline scenario assumes global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, provided that the conflict dies down quickly and oil prices return to around $82 a barrel. However, if tensions escalate and oil reaches $100, growth falls to 2.5%. In the most pessimistic scenario - with the destruction of oil infrastructure - global growth is just 2%, which historically sits on the borderline of recession.
For Polish business owners and investors, these figures matter not only economically but, above all, legally. Sudden changes in the economic environment raise questions about the enforceability of contracts, the security of supply chains and compliance with international sanctions regulations. Law firms are seeing a growing number of enquiries about force majeure clauses and mechanisms for renegotiating commercial contracts.
Oil prices and sanctions - legal consequences for Polish companies
The rise in oil prices is not merely a macroeconomic problem. For Polish companies operating in sectors dependent on imported energy resources, it means an urgent need to review existing commercial contracts, long-term agreements and financial guarantees. Gas prices in Europe have already risen by more than 70%, which directly hits industry's operating costs.
Particular attention should be paid to the international sanctions regime against Iran. The European Union and the United States maintain extensive sanctions programmes, and breaching them carries serious legal consequences, including financial penalties running into millions of euros and criminal liability for those who manage the business. Polish companies engaged in international trade must exercise particular caution.
The key areas of legal risk for Polish business owners include:
- Force majeure clauses - the possibility of relying on force majeure in connection with disruptions to energy supplies and rising prices
- Sanctions compliance - screening counterparties against EU, US (OFAC) and UN sanctions lists
- Securing hedging contracts - reviewing financial instruments that protect against oil and gas price risk
- Renegotiating long-term agreements - applying hardship clauses or rebus sic stantibus (Article 357¹ of the Civil Code)
- Political risk insurance - analysing the scope of policies and the possibility of claiming compensation
Each of these areas requires an individual legal analysis that takes into account the specific features of the sector and the contractual structure of the business concerned.
The impact of AI and technological transformation on the regulatory environment
The IMF report points to the surprising resilience of the US economy, which is forecast to grow by 2.3%, driven mainly by investment in artificial intelligence. Technology giants are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centres and AI infrastructure, and energy demand in this sector is expected to grow as much as 30-fold by 2035. Artificial intelligence is expected to account for as much as 40% of US economic growth.
This technology boom has a direct bearing on the regulatory environment in Europe and Poland. The European Union has adopted the AI Act - the world's first comprehensive piece of legislation regulating artificial intelligence. Polish technology companies and businesses deploying AI solutions must adapt to new requirements on algorithm transparency, personal data protection and risk management.
At the same time, the growing energy demand of the AI sector creates new challenges in the context of energy law and climate regulation. Companies building data centres in Poland must deal with the procedures for obtaining permits to connect to the electricity grid, the requirements of the CSRD directive on sustainability reporting, and local spatial development plans.
Europe and the energy crisis - legal aspects
With growth of just 1.1%, the euro area remains particularly exposed to the effects of the energy crisis. Dependence on energy imports is a structural weakness, deepened by oil market disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. Energy-intensive Polish companies should consider implementing a supplier diversification strategy and reviewing the terms of their energy supply contracts.
It is worth remembering that under Polish law a sharp rise in commodity prices may provide grounds for applying the doctrine of an extraordinary change of circumstances (the rebus sic stantibus clause). Article 357¹ of the Civil Code allows a court to modify the content of an obligation, or even terminate it, where performance would involve excessive difficulties or would expose one of the parties to a gross loss.
The Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz - risk for international trade
Attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East have reduced production by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day. The strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil supply flows, remains a key flashpoint. Any blockage of this sea route would have catastrophic consequences for the global supply chain.
For Polish companies involved in international trade, this means a need to review contracts with several important issues in mind. First, clauses on delivery delays and their contractual consequences should be checked. Second, business owners should review the terms of their cargo insurance and war risk policies, which may need to be extended if the conflict escalates. Third, logistics companies must factor in alternative transport routes and the additional costs involved.
The overlap of several crises at once - energy, geopolitical and technological - creates unprecedented legal challenges. The pandemic, inflation, the war in Ukraine and now the conflict with Iran make legal risk management an absolute priority for every responsible business owner.
How to prepare your company - legal recommendations
In the face of growing economic uncertainty, Polish companies should take concrete steps to protect their legal interests. A proactive approach to risk management can protect a company from serious financial losses and litigation.
We recommend the following actions:
- Audit of commercial contracts - a comprehensive review of contracts for force majeure and hardship clauses and indexation mechanisms
- Verification of sanctions compliance - making sure that all counterparties in the supply chain have no links to sanctioned entities
- Updating risk management policies - adapting internal procedures to current geopolitical threats
- Insurance review - checking the scope of policies covering political risk, war risk and business interruption
- Preparing a renegotiation strategy - developing legal arguments in case contract terms need to be changed
Each of these steps requires specialist legal knowledge and familiarity with current international regulations. It is not worth waiting for the crisis to hit your business directly.
Contact our firm today. Our experts in commercial, international and energy law will help you prepare your company for turbulent times. We offer a comprehensive contract audit, sanctions advice and support in renegotiating contracts. An initial consultation will allow you to assess the scale of the risk and plan an effective strategy to protect your interests.
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