Two renowned economists - Maurice Obstfeld and Adam S. Posen - warn that the world faces another wave of the "Chinese export shock". After years of pandemic isolation, China is returning to the global market with force, flooding global markets with cheap products backed by huge production capacity and heavy state subsidies.
This could mean another wave of economic turbulence - for Europe and Poland too.
🧠 What is the "China shock" and why is it returning?
The first China shock, at the beginning of the 21st century, involved global markets being flooded with cheap goods from China. For many business owners in the US and the EU this meant falling profits, and for employees it meant job losses.
Today, as a result of weaker domestic consumption in China and the economic slowdown, Chinese giants are turning their attention to exports again. The production of cheaper technologies, intermediate goods and finished products could undermine the competitiveness of local companies in Europe and the US.
🛡 How might the United States and the European Union respond?
Posen does not hide it: the US will have to impose additional tariffs or introduce trade controls to protect its labour market. The European Union, meanwhile, is caught in the middle - on the one hand it declares openness, on the other it is already preparing in practice to introduce "technical barriers" and import restrictions.
This raises questions about new strategic opportunities for business owners who operate between continents.
🌐 What does this mean for your business?
For many Polish business owners and exporters, a time of difficult decisions is approaching:
✅ Should you move production or your registered office outside the European Union?
✅ Is it worth considering expansion through the UK or the UAE - with access to the US and Asian markets?
✅ How can you protect yourself against potential tariffs and changes in trade policy?
At our firm, we have been helping clients for years to run their business safely, internationally and in compliance with the regulations - including in times of global economic tension.
📞 Book a free analysis of your situation
Do you run a business in Poland and plan to expand?
Or perhaps you operate in e-commerce, technology services or manufacturing?
Get in touch with us - we will prepare a strategy tailored to the changes ahead.
📞 +48 22 26 62 351
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