EFL Barometer for Q2 2026 - an alarming signal for the SME sector
The latest report from the European Leasing Fund (EFL) leaves no room for doubt: sentiment in the small and medium-sized enterprise sector has fallen to a level not seen for three years. The EFL Barometer index for Q2 2026 came in at just 47.7 points - 4.4 points lower than in the previous quarter. The last time such a low value was recorded was in Q2 2023, when the Polish economy was dealing with the consequences of the energy crisis and high inflation.
The EFL Barometer is a composite indicator showing the propensity of SME businesses to grow. It takes into account parameters such as sales plans, expectations regarding financial liquidity, demand for external financing and capital expenditure. A value below 50 points means that business owners look to the future with more pessimism than optimism.
For business owners and company boards, this reading should prompt a review of their operating strategy - not only from a business perspective, but also from a legal and regulatory one. In a slowdown, the risk of contractual disputes, liquidity problems among counterparties and the need to renegotiate agreements all increase.
Importantly, the survey, carried out by Ecorys on behalf of EFL, covered a representative group of 600 micro, small and medium-sized businesses, which lends the data high credibility and makes it a significant reference point for operational planning in the coming months.
Sales and financial liquidity - businesses are focusing on survival
The most worrying data concerns sales expectations. Only 9 per cent of surveyed businesses expect sales growth in the coming quarter, while as many as 89 per cent assume sales will stay at their current level. This means that the vast majority of Polish SMEs have switched to a cautious mode - the priority is not growth, but keeping day-to-day operations going.
An equally clear decline can be seen in the assessment of financial liquidity. Only 6 per cent of business owners expect an improvement in this area - a dramatic drop from 16 per cent in Q1 2026. As many as 90 per cent of businesses assume their liquidity position will not change. While stability in itself is not bad, combined with pessimistic sales forecasts it paints a picture of growing uncertainty.
From a legal perspective, this situation creates specific risks that business owners should keep in mind:
- Payment delays from counterparties - the need to enforce receivables and secure claims
- Renegotiation of commercial contracts - the need to adjust contract terms to a changing economic reality
- Risk of insolvency among business partners - early monitoring of warning signals
- Restructuring of liabilities - using legal tools such as restructuring proceedings or an arrangement with creditors
- Optimisation of employment costs - changes to the employment structure in line with labour law
Investment and external financing - caution dominates
The investment data is somewhat more varied, although it is hard to speak of optimism. 15 per cent of businesses announce an increase in capital expenditure, 51 per cent plan to keep it at its current level, and 34 per cent expect a decrease. As the authors of the report stress, the investment component remains weak, but it is not the main source of the deterioration in sentiment today.
The data on external financing is even more telling. As many as 87 per cent of business owners do not plan any changes in this area, and only 3 per cent of businesses expect an increase in demand for external capital. This means that the SME sector is de facto freezing its development plans and concentrating on managing what it already has.
Commenting on the results, EFL President Radosław Woźniak used an apt phrase: the SME sector has "entered a phase of cautious waiting it out”. The priority is not acceleration, but operational security and keeping control of the business. For lawyers serving businesses in this sector, it is a clear signal that demand is growing for advice on legal risk management and on protecting the interests of businesses in uncertain times.
It is worth remembering that giving up investment and external financing also has contractual consequences. Businesses that have previously entered into leasing, loan or grant agreements may face the need to renegotiate or withdraw from some of their obligations - which requires professional legal support to avoid costly consequences.
Medium-sized businesses most at risk - who will be hit hardest?
An interesting aspect of the report is how sentiment varies by company size. For the first time in a long while, medium-sized businesses recorded the weakest result - their index stood at just 46.4 points, a fall of as much as 6 points compared with the previous measurement. Small businesses scored 47.8 points (down 4.2 points), and microbusinesses 48.2 points (down 3.7 points).
Why have medium-sized enterprises suffered the most? Experts point to several factors. Businesses of this size usually have a more extensive cost structure than micro and small enterprises, while lacking the financial buffer and negotiating strength of large corporations. They are therefore particularly sensitive to fluctuations in the economic cycle.
From a legal point of view, medium-sized businesses face particular challenges:
- Greater exposure to employment disputes if headcount has to be reduced
- A more complex structure of commercial contracts and supply chains
- The need for professional compliance and regulatory risk management
- The need to protect intellectual property and know-how during a slowdown
Owners of medium-sized businesses should pay particular attention to a legal audit of their contractual obligations, a review of force majeure clauses and contract amendment terms, and an update of their debt collection procedures.
How to protect your business as economic conditions worsen
The EFL Barometer data clearly shows that the Polish SME sector is entering a period of heightened caution. For business owners, it is key to use this time not only to wait things out, but also to strengthen the legal foundations of their business. A proactive approach to legal risk management can provide a significant competitive advantage once conditions begin to improve.
The recommended legal actions in the current economic situation include, above all, reviewing and updating agreements with key counterparties with a view to protective clauses, introducing or improving procedures for monitoring receivables and responding early to payment delays, and analysing the options for restructuring liabilities if liquidity worsens.
Equally important is ensuring that the business complies with applicable regulations - both in the area of labour law and industry-specific rules. Businesses that neglect compliance during a slowdown expose themselves to additional costs in the form of administrative penalties and sanctions.
If you run an SME and are feeling the effects of worsening economic conditions, do not wait for problems to escalate. Contact our firm to carry out a comprehensive legal audit of your business. We will help you protect the company's interests, optimise your contractual obligations and prepare for various economic scenarios. An early legal response is the best investment in the security of your business.
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