The EFL Barometer for Q4 2026 - the lowest reading since the start of the pandemic
The latest reading of the EFL Barometer for the SME sector for Q4 2026 came in at just 46 points, down from 47.8 points a quarter earlier. This is the lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the third quarter in a row in which the indicator has stayed below the 50-point threshold - the level that signals conditions favourable to business growth.
The survey, carried out by Ecorys on behalf of the European Leasing Fund, covered a representative sample of 600 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. The results clearly confirm that the Polish SME sector has entered a phase of marked caution, with the end of the year bringing a growing tendency to postpone growth decisions.
As the survey commentary stresses: "A reading of 46 points is a strong warning signal. We are no longer dealing with a single weaker quarter". This is a signal that no business owner planning their strategy for the coming months should ignore.
Business owners' investment plans - a sharp drop in optimism
The most worrying element of the latest EFL Barometer is the sharp deterioration in investment plans. As many as 47% of business owners expect a fall in spending on fixed assets, compared with 35% just three months earlier. That is a jump of 12 percentage points in a single quarter, which points to a sudden change in sentiment.
At the same time, the share of companies planning to increase investment shrank to just 11%, from 15% in Q3. This means that for every business owner planning to grow, there are more than four who intend to cut spending.
Key data on SME investment plans for Q4 2026:
- 47% of companies expect a fall in spending on fixed assets (compared with 35% a quarter earlier)
- 11% plan to increase investment (compared with 15% in Q3)
- The headline EFL Barometer indicator fell to 46 points - the lowest since 2020
- The third quarter in a row below the 50-point threshold
As the survey commentary notes: "Almost half of business owners assume they will cut spending, while the group planning to increase it is clearly shrinking". Over the longer term, this trend may translate into a loss of competitiveness across the whole sector.
Sales and liquidity are stable, but companies are "waiting it out"
Paradoxically, forecasts for sales and financial liquidity remain relatively stable. 89% of companies expect sales to stay at their current level, and 11% of business owners expect liquidity to improve. In addition, as many as 86% of respondents expect their need for external financing to remain unchanged.
What does this mean in practice? Companies are not on the brink of a liquidity crisis. They do not expect a sudden collapse in revenue. Instead, they are putting growth decisions on hold and focusing on securing day-to-day operations. This is a classic "wait it out" strategy - business owners prefer to hold on to cash rather than risk investing in an uncertain environment.
This attitude is understandable, but it carries risk. Prolonged postponement of investment leads to technological lag, loss of competitive advantage and, further down the line, difficulty rebuilding market position once conditions improve. That is why it is worth not only cutting costs, but also planning your business structure wisely.
Micro-businesses are the most pessimistic - divergences within the SME sector
The EFL Barometer data reveals significant differences in sentiment depending on company size. The biggest deterioration was recorded among micro-businesses, for which the indicator fell to 45.5 points from 49.1 points a quarter earlier - a drop of 3.6 points in a single quarter.
EFL Barometer indicator by company size
- Micro-businesses: 45.5 points (down from 49.1 points) - the biggest deterioration
- Small companies: 45.8 points (down from 47.2 points)
- Medium-sized companies: 47.2 points (unchanged)
Micro-businesses and small companies are traditionally the most sensitive to changes in the economic cycle. They have smaller financial reserves, limited access to cheap financing and more often operate in local markets, where fluctuations in demand are felt immediately. These are the businesses that are quickest to abandon growth plans when the economic environment becomes uncertain.
Medium-sized companies, by contrast, show greater resilience - their indicator remained unchanged at 47.2 points. This is not an optimistic result (it is still below the 50-point threshold), but its stability compared with the rest of the sector suggests that larger businesses are better able to absorb market uncertainty.
What can SME owners do in the current situation?
Postponing investment is a natural reaction to a worsening economic climate, but it is not the only strategy available. Business owners who want to come through a more difficult period in better shape should consider several key actions:
- A tax structure audit - in many cases, changing the form in which the business is run allows you to lawfully reduce your tax burden, freeing up funds for day-to-day operations and selective investment.
- Optimising fixed costs - reviewing contracts, renegotiating terms with suppliers and diversifying sources of supply.
- Protecting your assets - in a downturn, the risk of counterparty insolvency and chains of payment problems increases.
- Reorganising the business structure - a properly planned structure, for example a limited liability company (sp. z o.o.) with a foreign shareholder, can reduce the effective income tax rate while protecting the owner's private assets.
At a time when almost half of the SME sector plans to cut spending, conscious management of a company's legal and tax structure is not a luxury but a necessity. Even if investment in new machinery or technology has to wait, investing in optimising the costs of running your business can deliver measurable savings without additional risk.
Free consultation - plan your strategy for more difficult times
Falling economic indicators and worsening investment sentiment are a signal not to wait passively to see how things develop. Whether you run a micro, small or medium-sized business, it is worth checking whether your current business structure is optimally suited to present market conditions.
The specialists at Global Accounting offer a free 15-minute consultation, during which you can discuss your situation and find out which solutions - from tax optimisation to reorganising your company structure - may be suitable in your case. Every situation requires individual analysis, so it is not worth relying on general advice.
Contact us: tel. +48 505 684 412 or write to [email protected]. You can also book a consultation via the website globalaccounting.com.pl.
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